Alberta’s Current Economic Outlook – September 2015
Back in January, after the major drop in oil prices, we took a look at the financial outlook done by ATB financial and made some future predictions. You can read that article HERE. It was one of our most successful blog posts and we decided to take another look at this quarter’s outlook!
This time, we’re looking at the RBC financial outlook in Alberta. What is it? It is designed to summarize Alberta’s current economic landscape and give an idea of what the future holds. The Economic Outlook provides Albertans with economic commentary that is trusted, meaningful and easy to understand. You can click HERE to read the full report.
But, if you wanted our summary, that’s what we’re here for!
Unfortunately, Alberta’s summer was hit with unexpected elements, which included drought conditions, wildfires, and a further downturn in crude oil production. On account of these unfolding developments, Alberta’s economy is expected to contract by 1.3% in real GDP. However, that’s don’t start panicking just yet. A modest recovery in energy markets underlies the forecast for growth to return to positive in 2016, albeit marginally, with real GDP growth at 0.6%.
Further, our employment rates continue to hold, despite the drop in employment levels in the energy sectors. The public sector has increased hiring, but there is some cause for concern. Retail sales are starting to see a downturn, which may affect their operational head counts.
What does this mean for Alberta? Well, looks like we’re in for a rough few months, possibly more, but that we’re in for a modest bump back in 2016, and finally back to normal in 2017.
Perhaps, after this, we’ll be in a better position as a province. One that isn’t so reliant on our oil production.